Economic Growth Projection for European Union by 2030
Economic Growth Projection for European Union by 2030
Author(s): Paweł MłodkowskiSubject(s): Economy, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Economic development, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development
Published by: Exeley Inc.
Keywords: EU; economic growth; real output projection; common EU policy; production function; population;
Summary/Abstract: The paper contributes to a discussion on developments in output for the EU-27 group over the next 11 years, up to year 2030. It departs from a discussion on arguments of the production function, with focus on sudden changes to population in Europe, its growth rate and composition. A brief study of population-decreasing events in the European historical perspective may represent an inspiring part. Reasons for inconsistency in estimated parameters of production function for European countries seems to be well-explained this way. The projection for the next 11 years, up to 2030 has employed the production function framework. Parameters have been estimated on the period 2004 – 2016 that matches most closely conditions that one may expect over the projection horizon. Feeding the estimated production function for the 2018-2030 forecast has employed projected population by Eurostat, while private capital investment has been generated by an ARIMA model. Projection is offered in two forms: (1) aggregated real output for the whole EU, and (2) the same category for each of the EU-27 countries.
Journal: European Integration Studies
- Issue Year: 13/2019
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 61-69
- Page Count: 9
- Language: English