POLITICAL-MILITARY CRISES IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA AREA: FROM CHRONIC TO ACUTE
POLITICAL-MILITARY CRISES IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA AREA: FROM CHRONIC TO ACUTE

Summary/Abstract: Wider Black Sea Area (WBSA) frozen conflicts have constituted ever since the ‘90s a permanent source of instability and insecurity in the region. Caused, inter alia, by ethnic based activities of separatist movements, they turned into real political and military crises, with regional echo, especially through the involvement of Russia on the side of the separatists and of the Euro-Atlantic actors on the side of central governments. Political-military crises in Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, despite overcoming the maximum escalation phase of direct armed conflict, have not been resolved. The parties cannot reach a compromise, which determined them to enter in a chronic phase. The present analysis focuses on the potential of Ukraine crisis which is still in process to deepen the existing crises in the region. After a brief overview of the key moments that make up the Ukrainian crisis, it is argued the idea of its predictability. Subsequently, the analysis is directed to Ukraine’s crisis potential to become chronic, namely a new frozen conflict in the region, another way of maintaining Russian influence, as well as and the potential of the events in Ukraine to reignite tensions between the breakaway republics and central governments in WBSA.

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