CSDP DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS: REFERENCE POINTS AND FUTURE SCENARIOS
CSDP DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS: REFERENCE POINTS AND FUTURE SCENARIOS
Author(s): Valentin IacobSubject(s): Environmental and Energy policy, Security and defense, Military policy, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Carol I National Defence University Publishing House
Keywords: European Union; security; strategic; defence; scenarios; drivers; energy; capabilities;
Summary/Abstract: This article examines potential European security alternatives over the next 15 years with particular emphasis on military domain. The global shift in the balance of economic power away from Euro-Atlantic area, increased dependence on fossil fuel imports, the U.S. rebalancing towards Asia-Pacific, and challenges in Europe’s neighborhood will put EU cohesion to the test and shape its common security development. Europe is at a strategic crossroads and the future of its Common Security and Defence Policy is likely to be determined by decisions made in the next five years. Four alternative scenarios explore available strategic options by examining five drivers with the uncertainties they generate. These drivers are likely to influence outcomes as far as year 2030 when the EU could become an influential regional and, potentially, global security actor or it could drift into irrelevance, leaving the U.S. without reliable partners in addressing global security threats.
Journal: Strategic Impact
- Issue Year: 2014
- Issue No: 54
- Page Range: 43-53
- Page Count: 11
- Language: English