Between EU Membership and the Sanctions Regime against Russia: Factors behind the Collapse of Estonian Transit Sector
Between EU Membership and the Sanctions Regime against Russia: Factors behind the Collapse of Estonian Transit Sector

Summary/Abstract: The article aims to investigate the main factors behind changes in the transit flows in Estonian transit sector. Towards this end, the current study used not only previous academic works and official statistics but also a comprehensive survey among leading businessmen, scientists and policy makers in the Estonian transit sector. According to our analysis, the main factors behind the fluctuations and decline of the Estonian transit sector were: first, the impact of European integration; second, changing relations with Russia; third, the changes in infrastructure and, fourth, the changes in global and regional trade flows. However, the European dimension appears also in second, third and fourth categories, as trade relations with Russia, infrastructural developments and general trade flows depend from European policy preferences and developments. Our latest analysis has also high importance in terms of assessing the rationality, profitability and sustainability of the expected realization of the Rail Baltic railway line and the Tallinn-Helsinki underwater tunnel. The article addresses also the political risks and security threats related to increasing trade flows from Russia.

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