Mecanismul de transmisie a politicii monetare Analiză comparativă România–Polonia
Monetary policy transmission mechanism.Romania-Poland comparative analysis

Summary/Abstract: The monetary policy transmission mechanism is studied using a SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregression) perspective, imposing sign restrictions on the effect of monetary policy shocks on endogenous variables. Carried out at the level of two states - Romania and Poland - which use the direct inflation targeting as a monetary policy strategy, the comparison took into account the quantification of the effects produced by positive changes in the interest rate with 25 basis points. The results show a higher degree of efficiency in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland, through visibly stronger effects on economic growth and inflation. The monetary policy shock, in the case of Poland, is characterized by a higher persistence of the interest rate compared to the gradual attenuated response of Romania. Also, the magnitude of the repercussions on the exchange rate, with a decisive role in the context of monetary policy conduct, is stronger in the case of Poland. The comparative results are supported by some structural features of Poland relative to those of Romania, such as the greater depth of the credit market, the increased credibility of the central bank (given the earlier adoption of the direct inflation target) and the lower share of loans foreign.

• Details
• Contents