RECONFIGURING THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA REGION: THE ROMANIAN PROPOSAL FOR AN ALLIED NAVAL COOPERATION
RECONFIGURING THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA REGION: THE ROMANIAN PROPOSAL FOR AN ALLIED NAVAL COOPERATION

Summary/Abstract: The de facto annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and its subsequent militarization with Russian anti-access / area denial capabilities represent a game changer for the security environment in the Wider Black Sea Region. By claiming large parts not just of Crimea’s, but also of Ukraine’s continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone, Russia may significantly change the balance of power in the region. Facing the probability of sharing volatile frontiers with Russia, the riparian states have responded through various initiatives that would allow the strengthening of their military positions. Such an attempt is the Romanian proposal for a Black Sea naval cooperation with Turkey and Bulgaria under the NATO umbrella. This initiative is at a standstill as of 2018 despite NATO launched a multinational Black Sea force headquartered in Craiova (Romania) last year that is expected to include additional sea assets to those already existent, namely sporadic NATO naval patrols. Indeed, Russia suggested that the aforementioned proposal may establish the premises for a permanent NATO Black Sea Fleet that infringes upon the provisions of the Montreux Convention and could constitute a veritable casus belli. This paper follows the itinerary of the Romanian initiative, analyzes the strategic and operational challenges that it is facing in the light of the Montreux Convention and not ultimately, offers possible prospects for a permanent NATO Black Sea Fleet.

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