Analysis of Cyclicality in the Azerbaijan Economy: Results of the Chi-Square Test
Analysis of Cyclicality in the Azerbaijan Economy: Results of the Chi-Square Test

Summary/Abstract: This study investigates the cyclical association between gross domestic product (GDP), monetary variables, international trade and foreign directed investments (FDI), and annual average oil prices (BRENT trademark) as explanatory variables in the Azerbaijan economy. The research methodology utilized a chi-square test of independence and goodness of fit test. The crosstabulation analysis used the nominal variables "increased" and "decreased" years, which refer to the transformation of the time series, mainly between 1991 and 2019. The results of the independence test demonstrated a statistically significant association between GDP, GDP per capita in current prices, international trade, FDI, and oil prices. However, the monetary indicators of economic growth, real GDP variables, and trade balance did not exhibit the same pattern. The results of the goodness of fit test showed a non-random deviation from the expected increased and decreased year in terms of GDP indicators and imports. This research is topical in light of the sharp oil price slump of 2020, which is reminiscent of the 2014–2015 downturn in commodity prices.

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