Analiza modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego z wykorzystaniem Bayesowskich modeli typu VEC
The Analysis of Real Business Cycle Model with the Use of Bayesian VEC Type Models

Summary/Abstract: In many economic theories and models, both long- and short-run relationships between variables are in focus. It is also the case in the real business cycle model (RBC model). The main aim of the paper is empirical analysis of the basic, three-variable RBC model for the Polish data of product, private consumption and investment over the years 1995–2015. A group of Bayesian VEC models with additional short-term restrictions is employed in this research. The Bayesian model comparison leads to the conclusion that the analyzed process is driven by two stochastic trends and one common cycle. Additionally, in order to evaluate the importance of long- and short-run shocks, the forecast error variance decomposition and the impulse response functions are calculated.

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