Europos saugumo ir gynybos politikos ateities scenarijai bei mažųjų valstybių interesai
Future ESDP Scenarios and Interests of the Small States

Summary/Abstract: This paper suggests that “scenario building” offers methodology for understanding the forces which are crucial for ESDP development. Author analyzes such driving forces of ESDP as EU integration tendencies, threats and demands on crises management operations, defence potency and NATO transformation success, as well as the US attitude towards ESDP. After the driving forces are examined, four scenarios are constructed: creation of European security and defence union, integration of ESDP into the broader system of euroatlantic cooperation, ESDP as a project of “core” states’, and ESDP as capabilities and operations of “coalition of willing”. All this is done in order to find a scenario, which is most suitable for the small states of the EU. Almost all of them are participating in the activities of ESDP, however, their interests and arguments are different. At last three groups of small EU states may be recognized regarding the European security and role in international sphere.

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