Makroekonomiczny model przestępczości i systemu egzekucji prawa dla Polski. Specyfikacje równań stochastycznych i rezultaty szacowania parametrów strukturalnych
Macroeconomic Model of Crime and of the Law Enforcement System for Poland. Equations’ Specification and the Results

Summary/Abstract: The article describes the macroeconomic model WF-CRIME of the Polish law enforcement system. The model consists of four blocks: (1) crime supply by genre (violent crime, property crime, drunk driving and the others), (2) the public safety, (3) the justice, and (4) the penitentiary system. All chains of the law enforcement system are analyzed in their simultaneity. Decisions taken at one stage of the law enforcement system induce reactions of the others, whereas the methodology of the research enables identification of key actions in the field of penal policies.The modeling rests upon general to specific strategy, without any a priori assumptions regarding relative importance of individual determinants of crime. Equations’ specification benefit from theoretical postulates as well as from numerous empirical investigations. The system contributes in many aspects to the state of knowledge in the domain of macroeconomic empirical modeling of crime and law enforcement systems.

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