Mathematical Model of Technology Transition
Mathematical Model of Technology Transition

Summary/Abstract: Technology transition is an innovation macro process where new technologies replace older ones. The dynamic of technology transition distinguishes the rise, stagnation and fall of technologies. We have developed a mathematical model of technology transitions based on sigmoid functions that describe limited growth. We are first who extended the model with stagnation and fall phase of technology transition process, by multiplying sigmoid function with decay function. The model was verified on a specific case from a transport sector. The case was technology transition from gasoline to diesel engines in Slovenia. Newly developed generic model is a good tool for monitoring technology acceptance on regional, national or international level.

• Details
• Contents