Exchange Rate and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach
Exchange Rate and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach

Summary/Abstract: The main objective of the study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on the rate of unemployment in Nigeria. Time series data spanning from 1983 to 2015 which were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Debt Management Office (DMO) statistical bulletin for 2019 and also the World Development Indicators (WDI) (2019) were used for the analysis. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was used to analyse the data. The results from the estimations show that real exchange rate has both in the short and long run, led to increase in the rate of unemployment. Other covariates in the study such as economic growth and credit to the private sector were only significant in the short run, while external debt is a significant determinant of unemployment both in the short and long run. In conclusion, it is recommended that the government should strengthen the economy through diversification, such as to improve the quality of the local industries to attenuate shocks that come as a result of exchange rate volatilities.

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