Makroekonomski efekti monetarne transmisije u Srbiji: SVAR Pristup
Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Transmission in Serbia: SVAR Approach

Summary/Abstract: Evaluations of the effects of transmission mechanisms in monetary policy are one of the essential macroeconomic issues. The main objective of this article is to examine the effects monetary policy has on the overall economic activity and prices in the Republic of Serbia by using the appropriate theoretical, methodological and empirical frame. Macroeconometric modelling has been carried out by means of the non-recursive SVAR model. The time period ranging from M01 2007 – M12 2015 has been selected as a suitable timeframe. The study has shown that the exchange rate is the most important channel of monetary transmission in Serbia. Also, the study has revealed that the movements and fluctuations in output are highly influenced by money supply. Policy makers should bear in mind the limited impact of exchange rates in the long run. Also, monetary authorities should pay special attention to the interest rate channel, as the main instrument of monetary policy, which has little influence due to the high rate of euroisation of the national economy.

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