TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT VE İSTİHDAMIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ ve VECM NEDENSELLİK TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI
INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY EXPORTS AND EMPLOYMENT: ARDL BOUNDS TESTING AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST VECM APPROACH

Summary/Abstract: It is possible to say that there are many macro sizes used to evaluate the development level and economic structure of a country, however, among these macro sizes, changes in export volume, employment rate and economic growth rate come to the fore. These macro variables affect each other directly or indirectly and significantly. The impact of export volume and employment rate developments in Turkey on economic growth and the direction of the relationship, using the annual data from 1991-2018 from the World Bank data system, ARDL (Auto Regressive Distrubuted Lag Models) was analyzed with the boundary test approach and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) causality test. As a result of the analysis made, test results of the error correction model based on ARDL shows that a unit deviation that will occur in the short run in the series reaches equilibrium in 0.76 period, and in approximately 9.1 months on year basis. According to the estimates of the ARDL model, 1% increase in exports during the period examined increases economic growth by approximately 0,48%. In other words, increase in exports by 10% (e.g. increasing from 70% to 80%) increases economic growth by 4.8% (e.g. from 5% to 9.8%). Finally, when the direction of causality relationship between the variables is examined, there is only one way causality relationship from economic growth to export in the short term. However, it was determined that there was no causality relationship between the other variables. In the long term, there is a two-way causality relationship between exports and economic growth, as well as a one-way causality relationship from unemployment to economic growth. However, it was concluded that there was no any causal relationship between economic growth and unemployment.

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