Кохортна раждаемост в България – динамика и основни характеристики
Cohort Fertility in Bulgaria: Dynamics and Major Characteristics

Summary/Abstract: The present study aims at analyzing the changes in the cohort fertility models and the dynamics of their major characteristics. The analysis spans 40 generations of women born in the period 1930-1970 and having completed their reproductive cycle as well as generations still in fertile age as of the study completion date. The study used data on the cohort fertility in Bulgaria until 2009 available from the Human Fertility Database and subsequently new data on the completed and cumulative cohort fertility at age 40 was calculated. For this purpose, the distributions of women by generation, age and parity were reconstructed for the period 2009-2019 and their age-specific cohort fertility rates were calculated: both total and according to the rank of the children born. The dynamics of the completed cohort fertility indicators shows a clear trend towards a decrease in the fertility of the generations of women considered. The process of declining of secondrank births began among the generations of the 1950s while in first-rank births, albeit less, the decline began among the generations of the 1960s. The most noticeable is the change in the agespecific fertility patterns of first and second rank observed in the generations of the 1970s when the process of births postponement is assumed to have been starting. The births of younger fertile ages decrease and the births of the higher ages increased and were especially visible in the generations of women born in the mid-1970s showing a process of recovery of some of the postponed births for those generations of women.

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