Mi van a számokon túl? Magyar blue-chip vállalatok negyedéves riportjainak kvalitatív szövegalapú elemzése
What is Beyond the Numbers? A Qualitative Text-based Analysis of the Quarterly Report of Hungarian Blue-chip Companies

Summary/Abstract: Processing texts via computers is gaining momentum in political science and on its border territories. Firstly, I provide an overview of relevant research in public policy, secondly, I examine how text mining can be used at the analysis of Hungarian stock market companies’ financial statements. Based on the quarterly reports of the four Hungarian blue-chip companies (OTP, MOL, Gedeon Richter, Magyar Telekom), I test the following hypothesis: 1) it is possible to prove the equity analysts’ general opinion on the way how companies communicate towards market participants and 2) there is a connection between the tone of the quarterly reports and market reaction, namely the price and the volatility of the stock prices. I use the statistical software R to provide dictionary-based tone and lexical diversity analysis, as well as, by following the Wordfish method. These steps partially confirm the hypothesis: I have found a significant connection between report tone and market reaction (prices and volatility) and they also prove the analysts’ opinion on two of the four companies’ communication (Magyar Telekom and MOL). These results confirm that qualitative text mining can be used in the Hungarian market environment. Given the low predicting power of the regression model, however, further analysis is needed, as regards making use of the models in practice. As a consequence, text mining has its relevance in the Hungarian corporate environment, and similarly to other countries, setting up a centralized database collecting financial reports in a unified format would mean a step ahead towards efficient, transparent, and fair communication.

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