INTEGRAREA INSTRUMENTELOR DE MODELARE/SIMULARE ÎN CADRUL COMPONENTEI DE ALERTĂ TIMPURIE A SISTEMULUI DE HEALTH INTELLIGENCE
THE INTEGRATION OF THE SIMULATION/ MODELING TOOLS AS COMPONENTS OF THE HEALTH INTELLIGENCE’S EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Summary/Abstract: Medical crises are spreading faster in a globalized society, sometimes having a pandemic potential. Simulation and modelling softwares and algorithms are state-of-the-art tools that can elaborate scenarios used in testing various hypotheses and generate solutions. Used as a part of the early-warning systems they can help discriminate between cvasi-similar situations but with different evolutions and outputs, helping to prevent loss of life and reducing the economic and material impact of disasters. The main advantage of the modeling / simulation tools is precisely this ability to operationalize complex, nonlinear, counterintuitive scenarios with a large number of stochastic variables, whose development can be influenced or monitored for long periods of time. Therefore, these tools generate potential "futures" (evolutions), enabling decisionmakers to anticipate the full spectrum of developments of a real or imagined event and generate strategies in order to select the desirable "future". Virtual environment enables simulation and post-event analysis (probable "pasts"/post-mortem analisys) and allows the creation of realistic training scenarious. Moreover, the rapid development of IMS in the past two decades (when they started to become publicly accessible after the advent of the Internet) has seen an acceleration in the post-9/11 era, when many applications have proven useful in areas of national security interest.

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