Długookresowe prognozowanie zmiennych ekonomicznych na podstawie bardzo krótkich szeregów czasowych
Long-time forecasting economic variables on the basis of very short-time series

Summary/Abstract: The forecast method created for a long-term forecasting annual variables on the basis of short-term series was presented in the article. The method connects the weighted average and linear trend. In the empirical part, the forecast of employment rates as well as the comparison of their forecast characteristics with the ARIMA model by the Diebold-Mariano test were presented. The long-term prediction significantly exceeding the length of the time series (being the base of parameter estimations) allowed to assess the efficiency of the created tool. The method allows to forecast future values relatively successfully.

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