IRANO GRĖSMĖS PROJEKCIJOS
PROJECTIONS OF IRAN’S THREAT

Summary/Abstract: The article aims to assess Iran’s threat to the international community (especially to the U.S. interests in the Middle East region and Israel’s security) and thereby opposes several stereotypes intervening in Iran’s foreign policy analysis. Evidently, they became a source of erroneous presumptions and induced a securitized policy towards Iran, which can be unnecessary and dangerous for the international community itself. The vastly recognized discourse that Iran is producing mass destruction weapons or even is eager to use them to confront the U.S. and Israel can be indicated as an example of such presumptions. The researcher E. Said has stated that the Middle East region has been mystified and irrationalized. This tendency served as a political strategy to approve imperial ambitions and actions. Unfortunately, the same strategy became an obstacle to clearly understand the current political processes in the Middle East. It is obvious that Iran’s foreign policy is directed against the U.S. and Israel, but the assumption that Iran’s ideological system contradicts the nation state security interests (which inevitably would be affected in case of the nuclear war) has no analytical background. Moreover, the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate and the IAEA reports conclude that no evidences were found to prove the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program. So, the article proceeds with the analysis of the Iran’s regional power projections to answer the question what the nature of a real Iran’s threat can be. A constructivist conceptual apparatus is applied to analyze Iran’s foreign policy interests and, respectively, the material and ideological capabilities to implement them. Different factors are taken into consideration: the nuclear program, development of the networks of Iran’s influence, its offensive and defensive military capabilities. Also, considerable attention is dedicated to analyze Iran’s religious doctrine and its impact on strategic planning. The analysis has revealed that Iran is facing a vast spectrum of dangers created by the U.S. and its allies. Rhetorical attacks of the U.S., Israel and some EU member states, economic sanctions, the arming of the Middle East region and the cyber attacks indicate that the U.S. and their allies seek the economic and ideological destruction of the Islamic regime. Thereby, Iran’s behavior and aggressive rhetoric can be perceived not only as a reflection of its ambitions, but also as a strategy of deterrence.

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