Branżowe prognozy popytu na pracę do 2050 r. w obliczu zmian demograficznych
Labour demand forecasts in the nace sections in the face of demographic changes in 2050

Summary/Abstract: The article’s main objective is to forecast the demand for labour in a given section of NACE rev. 2 in the perspective of 2050. The additional aim is to check whether the sum of forecasts for individual NACE ‘sections that create the Polish economy’s labour demand is consistent with the forecasted labour supply. Labour demand forecasts have been prepared in two stages, for two time perspectives: 2019–2030 and 2031–2050. Estimates for 2030 indicate a slight decrease in sthe number of employed people to the value of 16,286 thousand people (compared to 16,484 in 2018 – data according to LFS), and the projection for 2050 is 16,100 thousand. These relatively high values result from, among others, the optimistic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance in 2019 regarding the future growth rate of G. Demand forecasts have been compared with the supply side in three simulations of the future economic activity of Poles: (1) at the level of Polish values from 2019; (2) at the level of 2019 average values for the EU27; (3) at the level of the maximum values for individual age groups for the EU27. Only the third simulation guarantees that the labour demand forecast for 2050 of 16,100 thousand people can be met by a sufficient number of people able to offer this job. This simulation assumes an increase in Poles’ economic activity in individual age groups to the maximum levels recorded in 2019 in the EU27 countries, which means a significant mobilization of age groups going beyond today’s Polish definition of working age.

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