SİVİL HAVACILIK SEKTÖRÜNDEKİ GELİŞMELERİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATINA ETKİSİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ: THY AFRİKA AÇILIMI ÖRNEĞİ
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CIVIL AVIATION SECTOR ON TURKEY’S EXPORTS: THE SAMPLE OF THE TURKISH AIRLINES OPENING IN AFRICA

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to study the impact of the development of civil aviation on Turkey’s exports for the period of 2011-2020 by using data retrieved from 51 African countries as part of Turkish Airlines' African opening. In the study, an empirical analysis was conducted to reveal the effects of the role played by Turkish Airlines and the sector policies it implemented. The empirical analysis was generally conducted within the framework of linear time series models and analysis techniques. An econometric model has been established in which exports are selected as the dependent variable and the number of passengers as the independent variable. The analysis is based on monthly observations from the 2011-2020 period. The variable number of passengers, which is considered representative of the activities carried out by Turkish Airlines for Africa, is also based on monthly observations. The results of the cointegration test reveals that there is cointegration relationship between variables and so they are move together in the long run. According to the cointegration coefficient one unit increase in passenger variable lead to 0,341 unit increase in FMOLS method, 0,291 unit increase in DOLS method and 0,340 unit increase in CCR method. It can be inferred that passenger variable affect exports variable positively. Lastly according to Granger causality analysis it shows that there is one way causality linkage goes from number of passengers toward exports variables.

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