Yapısal kırılmalar altında reel ekonomik büyüme, reel döviz kuru ile turizm gelirleri ilişkisinin ampirik analizi
The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Real Economic Growth, Real Exchange Rate and Tourism Receipts under Structural Breaks

Summary/Abstract: Tourism is one of the most critical sectors in the economy today regarding its positive impact on growth, foreign exchange inflows, the balance of payments, investment opportunities and new employment areas. Researching the interaction of tourism revenues with real economic growth and the real exchange rate is the primary motivation of this study. With this motivation, the relationship between tourism revenues, economic growth and exchange rate has been investigated using quarterly data for the period 2003Q1-2020Q1 for Turkey. This research has been conducted through Zivot and Andrews structural break unit root test, Johansen cointegration analysis, coefficient estimates with FMOLS and DOLS methods, and causality analysis with the Toda-Yamamoto test. As the result of the research, it was observed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables, the probability values of tourism revenues and the real exchange rate, the independent variables that explain the dependent variable real national income were significant and the coefficient signs were positive. The power of the real exchange rate to affect real national income is relatively higher than tourism revenues. The significant structural break dates for 2016Q2 and 2017Q1 can be explained by the global repercussions of the terrorist incidents in this period, the tension with Russia and the coup attempt. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, there is a positive and one-way Granger causality from real national income and real exchange rate to tourism revenues.

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