Kredi Temerrüt Takasları, Borsa Endeksleri, Tahvil Faizleri ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği
The Relationship Between Credit Default Swaps, Stock Markets, Bonds and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyze the relations between CDS spreads, stock market indices, bonds and exchange rates in Turkey. For this purpose, weekly data between 29.04.2018 -22.11.2020 were used to estimate the relationship between variables. In the study, the stationarities of variables were analyzed by unit root tests. The causality relationship between variables, which was concluded to be stationary, was analyzed by the Toda-Yamamoto test. According to the findings, the BIST Liquid Bank index is granger cause of BIST All Shares, bonds and CDS spreads. In addition, there is a bidirectional relationship between BIST All Shares and exchange rates. Finally, according to the results of the Zivot-Andrews test, structural breaks occur in all variables (except for bonds) after 31.12.2019, which is the date when the Covid-19 disease was reported to the world health organization. These results show that the breakdowns occurred in the BIST Bank index as a result of the pandemic, and these breakages caused changes in other BIST All Shares, bond rates and CDS spreads.

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