Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28
Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28

Summary/Abstract: The article presents the problem of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and two grouping of states (OECD-Europe and EU-28). The aim of the article is to assess the level of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28. The main hypothesis was formulated: business cycles of consumer price index of energy in OECD-Europe or the EU-28 have a significant impact on the formation of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland, which results from their strong synchronization. In the paper used spectral and cross-spectral methods, as well as the TRAMO/SEATS method and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for business cycles estimation. The research was conducted on the example of Poland, OECD-Europe and EU-28 on the basis of secondary data of consumer price index of energy from the OECD.Stats (2018) database. Monthly time series from January 1996 to December 2017 were used. Two dominant cycles were identified in all surveyed units (66-months and 33-months). As a result of the conducted research, coherence between 79–97% between business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and EU-28 and 52–83% between those cycles in Poland and OECD-Europe was obtained. In both cases the amplitude of the business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland was lower than in those groups. Longer cycles (50/52–66) of country groups were overtake of similar business cycles in Poland, while for shorter cycles (33–50/52) there was a reverse relation.

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