Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments
Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments

Summary/Abstract: Scientific and technological forecasting for a long run is essential when determining priorities in science, engineering, and technology development. The forecasting methods used in its development and based on the Delphi approach cannot provide a complete analysis of development trends, depending on the experts’ professionalism, and allow facts of lobbying interests of various groups. In this paper, the mechanisms for improving the quality of scientific and technological forecasts by using the theory of inventive problem solving (TIPS, or TRIZ) when forming and verifying forecasts have been offered. In this case, the forecast results are based not only on the expert’s subjective opinion but also on the objective laws of the development of the technical systems. The material has come with detailed practical examples. The integration of the TRIZ instruments in the state system for determining top priority technological areas will reduce errors in choosing the number of promising technological and technical areas that will make up the basis for the formation of new models and technologies.

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