Metoda extragerii de semnal în analiza crizei financiare în România
The Signal Extraction Approach in the Analysis of the Financial Crisis in Romania

Summary/Abstract: The economic circumstances in the last year brought in the middle of public debate issues related to the fi nancial crisis and how it could have been avoided. The paper focuses on currency crises and tries to fi nd some indicators that might have signaled the crisis in Romania. We used the Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Edison (2003) approaches. Using monthly data for the period November 2005 – July 2009, we computed two currency pressure indexes and identifi ed as a crisis period September – November 2008. Monitoring a multitude of indicators, we found that only the M2 / reserves ratio and the equity index could have signaled correctly the crisis

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