PREVENCINIAI SMŪGIAI KAIP POLITIKOS PRIEMONĖ: JAV ir RUSIJOS ATVEJAI
PREEMPTIVE AND PREVENTIVE STRIKES AS A MEANS OF POLICY: CASES OF USA AND RUSSIA

Summary/Abstract: In the 21st century security situation has changed – international community has faced with a new kind of threats: terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. A progress of science and technology has become the two-edged sword in hand of terrorists and rogue states. In this context deterrence no longer could ensure security. Therefore attention was called to the other means of defense – preventive and preemptive strikes. Preventive strike is a military strike initiated in the belief that military conflict, while not imminent, is inevitable, and that to delay would involve greater risk. Preemptive strike is an attack initiated on the basis of incontrovertible evidence that an enemy attack is imminent. Several states have expressed intention to use preemptive strikes: USA, Russia, Australia, Italy, United Kingdom, but for the meantime only USA has implemented this strategy. The question is whether the other states will follow USA’s example. In this article the subject of preemptive strikes is considered in aspect of probability to use this means of policy. The object of analysis in this article is the probability of USA and Russia to use preemptive strikes. The purpose of the article is to compare the probability of USA and Russia to use preemptive strikes. Several factors were chosen to define the probability of USA and Russia to use preemptive strikes. They are: state‘s attitude towards preemptive strikes, military capabilities, state‘s self-perception in the international stage, the attitude of international community towards preemptive strikes. The probability of USA and Russia to use preemptive strikes is analysed employing several methods of analysis: analysis of documents, description and comparative method. The factors that determine the probability to use preemptive strikes show that probability that USA might use preemptive strikes is bigger than probability that Russia might treat the same way. First of all, fighting with terrorism USA prefers preemptive strikes,not deterrence, while Russia does not want to abandon deterrence. Secondly, USA has much more advantages than Russia in military sphere. Thirdly, although neither USA, nor Russia does not get international endorsement to preemptive strikes, USA still implements this strategy because USA is a superpower; meanwhile Russia obeys to the existing opinion – Russia has not implemented the strategy of preemptive strikes yet. Fourthly, USA is confident of it’s exceptional role in the international stage. Preemptive strikes are one of examples of such exceptional role. Meanwhile Russia also would like to be a dominant player but presently it must strive to recover it’s lost power after the collapse of Soviet Union.

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