Прогнозиране на продажбите на дребно на храни, напитки и тютюневи изделия в Република България чрез ARIMA модел
Forecasting Retail Sales of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Products in the Republic of Bulgaria Using an ARIMA Model

Author(s): Michal Stoyanov
Subject(s): Economy, ICT Information and Communications Technologies
Published by: Икономически университет - Варна
Keywords: ARIMA; Econometric forecasting; Retail trade sales; Food, beverages and tobacco products
Summary/Abstract: Information on the historical development of retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco products in the country can be used for the purposes of forecasting their future change. This approach is based on a procedure formulated by G. Box and G. Jenkins, who derive a methodology for constructing linear time series models based on autoregressive integrated moving averages. The logical structure of the text is developed in the stages of identification of a stochastic ARIMA model, estimation of its parameters and verification of their optimality. This allows in the final phase, based on an ARIMA(1,1,0) model of food, beverage and tobacco retail sales, to make a quantitative forecast for the next time period within the existing risks and challenges of the market environment.

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