What drives agricultural commodities prices? Mixed-frequency analysis of the agricultural market drivers
What drives agricultural commodities prices? Mixed-frequency analysis of the agricultural market drivers

Author(s): Matěj Liberda
Subject(s): Business Economy / Management, Agriculture, Financial Markets, Accounting - Business Administration
Published by: Masarykova univerzita nakladatelství
Keywords: agricultural commodities; mixed-data sampling; market drivers; financialization;
Summary/Abstract: The importance of agricultural commodities markets is growing and their dynamics have changed substantially recently, especially in the period after the financial crisis of 2008. The aim of the paper is to explain agricultural commodities price movements by assessing an impact of multiple economic and financial factors. We study 6 agricultural commodities, 3 representatives of the grain market and 3 soft commodities, in a time span of 20 years ranging from 01/01/1997 to 31/12/2016. We identify 9 macroeconomic and financial drivers. The data are collected from Bloomberg. We use mixed-data-sampling methodology that enables us to study drivers of various frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly) simultaneously in a single linear model. We do not find a link between energy market and agricultural commodities markets suggested by previous papers and thus we conclude that the link is not linear. In addition, results show prevailing impact of the financial variables over the impact of the macroeconomic factors, which is in line with the hypothesis of the commodity market financialization. We also break down the studied period into two fractions divided by the 2008 crisis and we find that the financialization occurred after the crisis of 2008.

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