Prediction of Electricity Prices, Comparison of Germany and the Czech Republic
Prediction of Electricity Prices, Comparison of Germany and the Czech Republic

Author(s): Pavel Sedláček, Elena Láncošová
Subject(s): Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy, Comparative politics
Published by: Masarykova univerzita nakladatelství
Keywords: electricity; futures; prices; prediction;
Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze time series that might have an impact on prices of energy commodities. Analysis and econometric modelling reveal which time series are corelated and how and the difference of Czech and German commodity exchange markets. This is input for further modelling of forecasting tool for electricity future prices prediction in near future. Selected time series are electricity and gas prices, contracted quantity per day, oil prices, coal prices, prices of emission allowances, weather (temperature and sunlight defining the consumption of energies), prices of electricity on day ahead market, currency exchange rate (EUR/CZK and EUR/USD) and correlation of particular week day. For the predicted value was chosen price of electricity on EEX for Germany and Czech Republic. The product is future “Cal+1” (product delivery is in next year) and time series were selected for period 1/2015-12/2018.

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