Döviz Kuru Dış Ticaret İlişkisi (2013-2023) Türkiye Örneği
The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade (2013-2023) the Case of Turkey

Author(s): İsmail Hakkı Kofoğlu, Behçet Doğan Oktaş
Subject(s): Economic history, International relations/trade, Present Times (2010 - today), Financial Markets
Published by: Özgür Yayın Dağıtım Ltd. Şti.
Keywords: Exchange Rates; International Trade; Turkey;
Summary/Abstract: The subject of this research is the relation between real exchange rate, US Dollar, exports and imports for the period 2013M01-2022M12 in Turkey. The aim of the research is to reveal the relationships between variables with time series econometrics methods and to determine the most effective variable in the relationships between variables related to foreign trade. For this purpose, Extended Dickey-Füller and Phillips-Perron stationarity analyses were performed on our related variables. According to the stationarity analysis, all the variables were not stationary and were found to be stationary at their first difference. According to the econometric procedure, cointegration analysis was performed with the series that were stationary at their first difference. The bilateral cointegration relationship between the variables was investigated with the Engle-Granger cointegration method. According to the results of cointegration analysis: the real effective exchange rate with exports (1), export with real effective exchange rate (2), USD by Export (3), imports at the real effective exchange rate (4) and a long-term cointegration relationship (5) was determined between exports and imports. Error correction models are estimated to reveal short-term relationships for models with cointegration relationship. Based on error correction estimates; imports affect the real effective exchange rate and exports (1), the real effective exchange rate affects exports (2), exports affect the real effective exchange rate (3) and the US dollar affects exports (4). According to the results of all the analyses made to determine the relations between foreign trade variables of exchange rate, import emerge are the most effective variable. This research reveals the necessity of focusing on the import variable in determining the policies related to Turkey's foreign trade deficit.

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