Sektörel Düzeyde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ile Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği
The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investments and Uncertainty at the Sectoral Level: The Case of Türkiye

Author(s): Adem Türkmen, İkram Yusuf Yarbaşı
Subject(s): Economy, Economic policy, International relations/trade, Economic development
Published by: Özgür Yayın Dağıtım Ltd. Şti.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments; Turkey; FDI;
Summary/Abstract: Investors, who make their investment decisions by considering many economic and institutional factors, are faced with many risks, including uncertainty, in terms of their investments abroad. Although knowing the relationship between uncertainty and FDI is important at this point, there are very few studies in the literature investigating this relationship at the sectoral level. For this reason, the question of how FDI inflows in the industry and service sector in Turkey are affected by internal and external uncertainty has been tried to be determined with quarterly data between the years 2005-2022. After testing the stationary of the series, the results were obtained by making predictions with ARDL models. According to the results of the analysis, while significant relations were determined for the industry sector, a statistically significant model for the service sector could not be estimated. In the long run, it has been found that FDI in the industrial sector is positively related to economic growth, internal uncertainty, and external uncertainty, but negatively related to real effective exchange rate and inflation. According to the short-term results; the internal uncertainty result is parallel to the long-term and it is seen that the risk is accepted as an opportunity for foreign investors. On the other hand, it was also found that the relationship between global uncertainty and FDI inflows is negative even at different lags.

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