Dış Göç ve Konut Fiyat Dinamikleri: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar
International Migration Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Turkey

Author(s): İlkay Badurlar
Subject(s): Micro-Economics, Migration Studies, Socio-Economic Research, Asylum, Refugees, Migration as Policy-fields
Published by: Özgür Yayın Dağıtım Ltd. Şti.
Keywords: Migration; Turkey; migration policies; socio-economic effects;
Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of international migration on housing price dynamics in Turkey for the period 2010-2022. The number of foreigners with a residence permit in Turkey has been used to represent the number (stock) of immigrants resulting from international migration. Real House Price Index has been used to represent house prices. Short- and long-term relationships between the recent intense immigrant flows to Turkey and housing prices were investigated using the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). The cointegration test results indicate the existence of a cointegration between housing prices and the number of immigrants. The cointegration vector of the long-run relationship shows that every 1% increase in the number of immigrants increases the housing prices by 0.1885%. VECM causality results show that housing prices are affected by the past and present values of the immigrant stock resulting from international migration to Turkey. The change in the number of immigrants as a result of external migration is the reason for the change in housing prices. There was no causal relationship from housing prices to the number of immigrants. It is thought that the results of the study will be beneficial in terms of considering the socio-economic effects of migration while determining Turkey's external migration policies.

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