ПРИМЈЕНА САВРЕМЕНИХ МОДЕЛА ЗА ПРЕДВИЂАЊЕ БАНКРОТСТВА ПРЕДУЗЕЋА У СЕКТОРУ САОБРАЋАЈА У ЦРНОЈ ГОРИ
APPLICATION OF MODERN MODELS FOR PREDICTING BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MONTENEGRO

Author(s): Milica Vukčević, Saša Vujošević, Milan Lakićević
Subject(s): Business Economy / Management, International relations/trade, Accounting - Business Administration, Transport / Logistics
Published by: Savez računovođa i revizora Republike Srpske
Keywords: transportation sector; Altman Z” Score model; Zmijewski model; IN99 model; bankruptcy; Montenegro;
Summary/Abstract: The transportation sector, as a particularly important economic activity, significantly determines the level of economic development of a country, including Montenegro. Given that Montenegro is predominantly oriented towards tourism, it is not surprising why the operation of companies in the transportation sector is of great importance for the future, especially considering that these companies should ensure better access to tourist destinations with their infrastructure, thereby enabling better regional connectivity. Furthermore, a well-organized transportation system contributes to the safety of tourists, which can result in greater satisfaction and their return visits. Additionally, companies in this sector need to provide adequate logistics, i.e., efficient transport of goods, which is crucial for business and trade, both domestically and internationally, ultimately affecting the overall economic condition of Montenegro. To ensure the aforementioned, financially healthy companies that maintain continuous operations are necessary for the state. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to examine whether the application of modern bankruptcy prediction models can indicate the continuity of business operations in the future, or early signals of business failure. The analysis includes application of three models: Altman Z-Score model, Zmijewski model, and IN99 model, which will be applied to all eleven companies, operating in the transportation sector in Montenegro. To observe the business trends of these companies, the analysis will cover the period from 2019 to 2023. The research results should show whether the application of these models can predict the continuity of operations of these companies, and, if not, indicate early signals of business failure. The obtained results can be useful for decision-makers in companies to review operations through the lens of these models, as well as for the state, especially considering the ownership stake it holds in these companies. This will provide insight into the business operations, which is particularly important for ensuring continuity and, consequently, improving the economic development of Montenegro.

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