Global Geopolitical Risks in The Near Future and Their Reflections on Türkiye
Global Geopolitical Risks in The Near Future and Their Reflections on Türkiye

Author(s): Mesut Özel
Subject(s): Geopolitics, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Transnational Press London
Keywords: Global geopolitical risks; the near future; Türkiye;
Summary/Abstract: The above phrase is an anonymous proverb emphasising the significance of predicting or forecasting the future. Every entity in the world begs to have an idea of the future, such as wage war, investing, opening a business, selecting a profession, etc. Indeed, the vagueness of the future was an issue that military strategists mainly had dealt with in the theatre. Carl von Clausewitz calls the “fog of war”, which is the difficulty of mitigating uncertainty due to the general (un)reliability of information, which he phrased as “intermixed with chance, numerous imponderables, the limitations of accurate observation and the vast number of variables involved.” On the other hand, a commander needs to frame the operational environment, that is, to depict the reality of the current environment and all the intricate details that influence that environment. Similarly, businesses need to conduct a risk analysis, referring “to the assessment process that identifies the potential for any adverse events that may negatively affect organisations and the environment”, before deciding to launch a new project or approve a financial application. Another approach is trend analysis, which “involves a systematic approach to examining historical data to identify patterns, tendencies, or changes over time.” Futures studies is also an emerging methodology, which could be interpreted as “the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures.” It assists politicians and societies in managing uncertainties and increasing their resilience and innovation. Futures studies mainly help humankind solve pressing global challenges.

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