Избор на методи за прогнозиране на риска от несъстоятелност в България
Selecting method for building a bankruptcy prediction model in Bulgaria

Author(s): Ekatherina Tzvetanova, Ivan Yordanov Kostov
Subject(s): National Economy, Economic policy, Political economy
Published by: Нов български университет
Keywords: bankruptcy prediction models; statistical methods; intelligent methods; discriminant analysis; neuron networks;
Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this study is to select the appropriate method for the creation of a model capable to forecast the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy in the Bulgarian economy. This paper examine 232 different models for forecasting the companies risk of bankruptcy elaborated in the period 1966-2014. All the sampled models were tested with a set of criteria and for each of them, analysis of inconsistencies were performed. This analysis supported the identification of the method to be applied in the development of bankruptcy prediction model for Bulgarian context.

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