Probability of Success of Crowdfunding Projects during Campaigns in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and in the USA
Probability of Success of Crowdfunding Projects during Campaigns in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and in the USA

Author(s): Aleš Slúka, Ivana Svobodová
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Economy
Published by: Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Keywords: Crowdfunding; reward-based; success factor; duration
Summary/Abstract: Purpose:The objective of this research was to discover how successful crowdfunding projects are likely to be to have reached the desired amount at the beginning, the middle and towards the end of the campaign, and compare regression results on regional level. Design/methodology/approach:The sample is 116 crowdfunding projects, 50 located in the USA region and 66 in the Czech Republic or Slovakia. Data were collected on a daily basis over a period of 84 days directly from chosen live crowdfunding projects published on Kickstarter, Indiegogo, HitHit and Startovac. The main outcomes of the research are determined by a logistic regression model of tracked crowdfunding markets and categories. The share of project ́s monetary goal was tracked for t0,25, t0,5, t0,75, where t represents time and number represents percentage of project ́s total duration. Findings: The average crowdfunding project established in Czechia or Slovakia has a higher probability of success with lower investment raised, higher log odds of success, odds ratio and average marginal effect at all investigated stagesthanan average US-located project. Research/practical implications:The logistic regression results for every established category and region are presented separately here. Readers can, therefore, determine the success probability of a project by substituting the necessary variables. Forthcoming research analysing more crowdfunding projects in more regions should ensure a more accurate and reliable outcome per category over the longer period. Originality/value: It has been found that the relationship between the crowdfunding projectsuccess and its raised investment/goal ratio in time has never been analysed at either the regional or the categorical level.

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