VOLATILITY OF EUA PRICES AND IT’S CONNECTION WITH THE PRICE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND ELECTRICITY
VOLATILITY OF EUA PRICES AND IT’S CONNECTION WITH THE PRICE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND ELECTRICITY

Author(s): Domagoj Vulin, Maja Arnaut, Lucija Jukić, Daria Karasalihović Sedlar
Subject(s): Economy, Supranational / Global Economy
Published by: Udruženje ekonomista i menadžera Balkana
Keywords: energy price volatility;EU ETS;EUA prices;CCS;long-term investments;oil and gas industry;
Summary/Abstract: Prices of electricity, oil, and gas are analyzed by terms of statistical distribution of price change and volatility of price change. The best time window was determined to determine signal of price change in such manner that the change of one parameter (i.e. price) precedes the change of the other with the expected time delay. Student’s distribution has shown good matching with price changes. EUA price is shows great variations, and strongly depends on the period. Back-loading of EUA prices issued by European Commission caused extreme drift in price making prediction of feasibility of longterm investments in Carbon Capture (Utilization) And Storage extremely unreliable.

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