Nexus of Ruble Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Factors in the Period of Recent Economic Instability
Nexus of Ruble Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Factors in the Period of Recent Economic Instability

Author(s): Tomáš Urbanovský
Subject(s): Supranational / Global Economy, Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy
Published by: Masarykova univerzita nakladatelství
Keywords: ruble exchange rate; oil price; VAR; Granger causality; correlation;
Summary/Abstract: Primary cause of recent Russian economic downturn was the decline in global oil prices, which led to currency crisis in Russia. But more factors need to be taken into consideration, specifically commodity prices, Russian interest rates, development of Russian stock market and development of the USD exchange rate. Existence of direct relationship between these individual factors and ruble exchange rate is likely. However, it is not sufficient to investigate only correlational relationships between these variables - causal relationships need to be identified as well.

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