Applying P-splines for Mortality Rates in the Czech Republic
Applying P-splines for Mortality Rates in the Czech Republic

Author(s): Ján Gogola
Subject(s): Business Economy / Management, Evaluation research, Demography and human biology
Published by: Masarykova univerzita nakladatelství
Keywords: mortality; forecasting; R language; smoothing; P-splines;
Summary/Abstract: Many important classes of liability in life insurance business are sensitive to the direction of future mortality trends. Therefore the prediction of future mortality rates is an issue of fundamental importance for insurance companies. The Lee-Carter model became one of the most applied models and it is used in different countries around the world to forecast age-specific death rates. The main goal of this paper is to apply the method of P-splines to the smoothing and forecasting of two-dimensional mortality tables for the population in the Czech Republic.

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