Oценка на риска от разпространение на финансовата криза в Гърция върху страните от Югоизточна Европа
Assessment of the Risk of Spreading the Greek Financial Crisis to other CEE Countries

Author(s): Stefan Petrov
Subject(s): Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Public Finances
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Greece; Financial Contagion; Contagion Risk; Risk Assessment; Financial Risk
Summary/Abstract: The author analyses the risk probability which Greek financial crisis poses to the neighboring countries from the Southeastern Europe. The research highlights the inter-dependence between the countries in the region and their vulnerability to the processes in Greece which is an important trade partner. The author presents data on the debt-to-GDP ratio for Greece and the share of the export to Greece for select countries from Southeastern Europe. The relation between the financial crisis in Greece and its possible contagion that could spread on to the neighboring markets is examined through individual country risk assessment based on select economic indicators, Markov chain methodology used to determine the export between any pair of the countries reviewed as well as the country-specific contagion risk index for a time period. Author concludes that trade restrictions between the countries are directly related to the level of contagion risk. Even in cases where no financial crisis is observed, the negative impact of a hypothetical internal market depression could impact other partner countries in analogical to the financial contagion manner.

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