Assessment of the Future Climate over Southeast Europe Based on CMIP5 Ensemble of Climate Indices – Part Two: Results and Discussion
Assessment of the Future Climate over Southeast Europe Based on CMIP5 Ensemble of Climate Indices – Part Two: Results and Discussion

Author(s): Hristo Chervenkov, Vladimir Ivanov, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Business Economy / Management, Energy and Environmental Studies
Published by: Национално издателство за образование и наука „Аз-буки“
Keywords: Climate Indices; CMIP5 Ensemble; RCPs; Future Climate; South-east Europe
Summary/Abstract: Nowadays there is a strong degree of agreement that the climate change is the defining challenge of our time. The analysis based on climate indices is probably the most widely used non-parametric approach for quantification of extreme climate events. This study which consist of two parts, is dedicated on the assessment of the spatial patterns and the temporal evolution of 6 temperature-based and 3-precipitation based indices in projected future climate over south-east Europe up to the end of the century. The annual means of the daily mean and extreme temperatures are also analysed in consistent manner. The indices are computed from the bias-corrected output of 5 CMIP5 global models, forced with all 4 RCP emission scenarios. The multi model ensemble medians of the temperature-based indices shows considerable warming which is consistent with the increase of the mean temperatures and is statistically significant in most cases. The revealed changes of the precipitation-based indices are more complex when compared with temperature changes.

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