COVID-19 in Moldova: What was the effect of the 2020 lockdown and what effect would a similar lockdown have in 2021?
COVID-19 in Moldova: What was the effect of the 2020 lockdown and what effect would a similar lockdown have in 2021?

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor
Subject(s): Health and medicine and law
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Keywords: Covid 19;
Summary/Abstract: The recent rise in the number of COVID-19 infections, which was most likely caused by new virus strains, stirred heated public debates about the need to enforce tougher restrictions in order to prevent the virus from spreading. In this context, as a result of the recent meeting of the Supreme Security Council, President Sandu suggested to impose a 2-week state of emergency and for the Government to develop the list of restrictions regarding social and economic activities, which would be then submitted to the Parliament for consideration and approval. The idea of establishing these restrictions (or a lockdown) is controversial per se, as its impact will be felt by everyone, implying costs for some and benefits for others. On the one hand it could lead to economic and social costs, with particular damage to small enterprises and employees with lower salaries, especially if we take into account the population’s low income and the economy that is barely recovering from the most severe recession in the last 20 years, while on the other hand a lockdown could relieve some of the pressure on the health system, prevent infection spreading and allow saving people’s lives. Nevertheless, the heated arguments about this issue miss a cold review of the effects caused by the lockdown of 17 March - 16 May 2020, which could be used as a yardstick for understanding the effects of a potential lockdown in 2021. This analysis estimates those effects on the level of infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19, as well as on the major economic indicators, by means of precise econometrics and statistical techniques.

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