Russia: funding the war eases the consequences of sanctions
Russia: funding the war eases the consequences of sanctions

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska
Subject(s): National Economy, Labor relations, Economic policy, Government/Political systems, Military policy, Socio-Economic Research, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia
Keywords: Funding the war; Russia; GDP; Economic statistics; Rosstat; Vladimir Putin; federal budget; unemployment rate;
Summary/Abstract: Preliminary estimates by Rosstat indicate that in Q1 2023 Russia’s GDP decreased by 1.9% y/y, although earlier in its report the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) estimated the decrease at 2.3%. In this context, it is worth noting that statistics published in Russia should always be taken with a grain of salt (for more see ‘The credibility of Russian economic statistics is a growing problem’). The CBR estimates that as a whole Russia’s economic growth rate in 2023 will be 0.5–2%of GDP. The CBR analysts expect to see particularly positive macroeconomic indicators in Q2 2023 figures, due to the low comparative base. Russia’s economic growth in 2023 has also been announced by some international institutions; for example, the International Monetary Fund says that this rate will be 0.7% of GDP. However, some international forecasts expect recession to continue in Russia: the OECD predicts that Russia’s GDP will decline by 2.5%, and the European Commission spells a decrease of 0.9%.

• Details
• Contents