The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine
The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski, Kamil Kłysiński, Andrzej Wilk
Subject(s): Government/Political systems, International relations/trade, Military policy, Political behavior, Peace and Conflict Studies, Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Published by: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia
Keywords: War against Ukraine; Belarus; Alyaksandr Lukashenko; Belarusian power apparatus;
Summary/Abstract: Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus (RB) has made its territory and its military, transport and logistical infrastructure available to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian army is not taking part in the hostilities. Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime is reluctant to become directly involved in the war, which results from anti-war sentiment among the country’s elite and the majority of the population, and out off ear of the domestic destabilisation which would most likely occur should the Belarusian army enter Ukraine. Therefore, Lukashenka is making attempts to avoid such a scenario: he regularly denies rumours that the Kremlin is putting pressure on him, and has stressed that the main threats to Belarus include alleged acts of provocation and aggressive behaviour from NATO. At present, there are no indications that the Kremlin intends to send Belarusian troops to take part in the war; it seems satisfied with the current format of cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s main task for Belarus, as part of the Regional Group of Forces, is to provide cover for its own forces, while the Belarusian army itself is unprepared to launch offensive actions. The most likely short-term scenario involves Minsk continuing to provide multifaceted support to the Russian army without directly dispatching its own troops to Ukraine.

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