A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine
A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor, Piotr Żochowski
Subject(s): Studies in violence and power, Geopolitics, Peace and Conflict Studies, Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Published by: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; military operation in Ukraine; idea of “uniting Russian lands”; occupation; Donbas;
Summary/Abstract: Russia was forced to modify its plan after its military operation in Ukraine failed. The original intention was the rapid political subjugation of Ukraine. The new plan involves Russia consolidating its position in the territories that it has managed to seize thus far. As a result of major resistance on the part of Ukrainian society, the Kremlin has abandoned its planned implementation of a technique known from 2014 involving the creation of so-called people’s republics in the occupied Kherson Oblast and portions of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Since May 2022, Russian government officials have increasingly frequently spoken of annexing the occupied territories, making reference to the history of the Russian Empire and to the Taurida and Kherson governorates created in 1802. As concerns the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), the plan to incorporate them into the Russian Federation should be viewed as a correction of the strategy pursued following the signing of the so-called Minsk agreements in 2015, which specified that the Donbas would be granted special status within the Ukrainian state. The self-proclaimed republics and the territories that have been seized since the beginning of the war, covering more than 80,000 square kilometres, are to become an integral part of Russia. This will enable Moscow to maintain a corridor leading to occupied Crimea, to present the “special military operation” as a Russian victory and to launch another stage of the process of “uniting Russian lands”.

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