Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy
Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz
Subject(s): Economic policy, Government/Political systems, International relations/trade, Military policy, Political behavior
Published by: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia
Keywords: Russia's impact in Africa; Russia’s economic weakness in Africa; Russia’s informal military presence;
Summary/Abstract: The Russian Federation, despite its limited abilities, has significantly strengthened its influence in Africa over recent years through the skillful use of its economic tools and ‘controlled chaos’ –a set of aggressive actions designed to stoke existing conflicts with the aim of managing them later on. This policy has helped to destabilize the continent and exacerbate its tendencies towards authoritarian rule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated Africa’s predicament by jeopardising its food security. Africa’s disillusionment with Russia is likely to increase in the near future for this reason. Russia’s limited offer for Africa, the uneven benefits of their mutual cooperation, the Kremlin’s paternalistic attitude towards its partners and the negative consequences of its activity for regional security will all help to erode its appeal. As a result, African countries will grow more assertive towards Russia and its options will narrow, which will make it more difficult for the Kremlin to expand and maintain its influence on the continent.

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