Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2020)
Scenarios of the development of the international security environment (2020)

Author(s): Vít Beneš, Mats Braun, Marek Čejka, Tomáš Dopita, Jan Eichler, Rudolf Fürst, Vladimír Handl, Michal Kořan, Petr Kratochvíl, Vít Střítecký, Lukáš Tichý
Subject(s): Government/Political systems, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Political behavior, Comparative politics, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Geopolitics, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Keywords: Transatlantic space; European Union; Central Europe; Russia and the Eastern Neighborhood of the EU; Middle East; North and Sub-Saharan Africa; China;
Summary/Abstract: The document discusses the complexity of the global security environment and the emergence of hyper-risks due to interconnected anthropogenic systems. It suggests increasing resilience against hyper-risks by dividing existing systems into smaller units and creating circuit breakers to prevent cascading global reactions. The publication explores creative thinking about the future without precise probabilistic predictions, acknowledging the sudden and unexpected nature of significant events in complex systems, famously termed "black swans" by Nassim Taleb. It also examines geopolitical risks, the relative decline of US power, and the potential for a G-zero World scenario. The project's methodology is based on the complexity of the security environment, rejecting precise probabilistic forecasts and instead offering internally consistent hypotheses about future developments to aid in strategic thinking.

• Details
• Contents