What Factors Affect Strategic Stability? Russian Experts’ Assessments
What Factors Affect Strategic Stability? Russian Experts’ Assessments

Author(s): Alexander G. Savelyev, Olga M. Alexandria
Subject(s): Politics, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Military policy
Published by: Mednarodni inštitut za bližnjevzhodne in balkanske študije IFIMES
Keywords: strategic stability; space weapons; missile defence; precision weapons; nonstrategic nuclear weapons; third-country nuclear weapons; cyber weapons; growing conflict intensity between leading world powers; Russia; U.S.; China; NATO;
Summary/Abstract: The article analyses the data obtained in a survey that involved twenty leading Russian experts specializing in international security, arms control, and strategic stability. The survey was conducted in December 2021. The respondents were asked to name factors that, in their opinion, currently have (2022) or will have a tangible impact on strategic stability in the foreseeable future (until 2036) and to list them in order of their significance. In addition, they were asked whether and how these factors would be taken into account in the future. Two-time frames were chosen for analysis: up until the year 2026 (when the “extended” START-3 Treaty will end) and up until the year 2036 (when a possible nuclear arms control agreement that may replace START-3 will expire). The experts were also asked to assess the degree to which the proposed factors may affect strategic stability in 2022, 2026, and 2036.

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