Georgia’s Backsliding from Democracy. Is the Russian Path Dependency on the rise?
Georgia’s Backsliding from Democracy. Is the Russian Path Dependency on the rise?

Author(s): Boris Grozovsky, David Darchiashvili
Subject(s): Civil Society, Governance, Post-Communist Transformation
Published by: EECMD - Eastern European Centre for Multiparty Democracy
Keywords: democracy in Georgia;
Summary/Abstract: In Russia, Putin won an uncontested victory, but in Georgia the struggle is far from over. The opposition did not disappear, opposition parties, independent media and NGOs are active. We consider three scenarios. If things go well (an optimistic option), Georgia will carry out the necessary reforms and gain EU candidate status. Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine, which will demoralize the pro-Russian anti-democratic forces in Georgia, can prompt it. In a realistic scenario, the Georgian Dream remains in power after the 2024 elections, but through a series of compromises, this will not prevent Georgia from achieving EU candidate status. Polarization in society would diminish and Georgian politics would become more pluralistic. Finally, in the negative scenario, repression against the opposition in Georgia will intensify and relations with Europe will deteriorate significantly. This scenario can be stimulated if the Russian regime can save face in the result of aggressive war with Ukraine, since the inherently weak Georgian government needs some patronage from abroad.

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